Friends of the San Juans issued its first Salish Sea Vessel Traffic Projections in 2015 to provide island community members, the public, and decision-makers with comprehensive information about projects throughout the Salish Sea that would increase large commercial ocean-going vessel traffic and to illustrate these projects’ cumulative impacts. Keeping a diligent eye on proposed projects, Friends updated these projections in 2019, 2021, and 2024.
The following infographic provides an overview of expected new vessel traffic across various ports and terminals in the Salish Sea. Each numbered location represents a port or terminal with projections of additional annual vessel transits, broken down by cargo types, such as containers, cars, oil, and renewable fuel. This visual helps illustrate the potential cumulative impact on local communities and the marine ecosystem. It also highlights key new projects and expansions, enabling the public to understand where and why vessel traffic might increase in the coming years.
Our newest update, the September 2024 Salish Sea Vessel Traffic Projections, identifies 23 new or expanding terminal and refinery projects that have been proposed or permitted or were recently completed. Ten of the 23 projects (nine projects in British Columbia and one in Washington State) would potentially add at least 2,005 annual ocean-going vessel transits to and from Salish Sea ports.
If all of the proposed, permitted, and recently constructed projects in British Columbia are developed, and if the AltaGas Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) export facility in Ferndale, WA, further expands, this would result in at least an 18% increase in large, ocean-going commercial vessel traffic, as compared with 2023 transits. These calculations don’t include 12 projects — nine in Washington state, two in British Columbia, and one in Oregon — with vessel traffic numbers to be determined (TBD), several of which will likely result in increased ocean-going vessel traffic in the Salish Sea.
Two projects in Canada, the recently completed Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project and Roberts Bank Terminal 2, account for over 60% of the projected increase in vessel traffic.
The Canadian-owned Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project will almost triple Canadian exports of diluted bitumen/tar sands oils that have been strip-mined or extracted using an intensive steam injection in Alberta. The pipeline expansion project was completed in May 2024, and will add at least 696 annual oil tanker transits through the Salish Sea. However, there has been an unexpected increase in imports of Canadian diluted bitumen/tar sands oil via oil tankers to Washington State refineries. Shipping to Washington State refineries was not included in Trans Mountain’s project application and/or the permit application’s environmental assessment process. This unplanned increase in oil tanker traffic, over-water oil transfer operations, and over-water oil storage at anchorage areas and offshore are increasing the risk of accidents and diluted bitumen/tar sands oil spills in the Salish Sea.
The Port of Vancouver’s proposed Roberts Bank Terminal 2 was approved in 2023 by both the Government of Canada and the Government of British Columbia. If a Fisheries Act Authorization is obtained and the final investment decision is affirmative, construction is expected to begin in the late 2020s, with completion in the mid-2030s. Roberts Bank Terminal 2 would add 520 additional container ship transits per year.
